What If the Election Were Held Tomorrow?

The Council’s SVP and VP of government affairs Joel Kopperud and Blaire Bartlett kicks off their Legislative Summit with a run down of today's hotbed of political issues.

They talk flipping The House and Senate, regulatory issues in the healthcare space, reauthorizing tax cuts, PBM transparency and cannabis.

Read the Transcript

Sandy
Welcome to the Leader’s Edge podcast. I’m Sandy Laycox, Editor in Chief of Leader’s Edge. In this episode of our Politics and Risk series, The Council’s government affairs team kicks off their Legislative Summit with a rundown of today’s hotbed political issues. They talk flipping the House and Senate regulatory issues in the health care space, reauthorizing tax cuts, PBM, transparency, progress, and cannabis. Give it a listen. We are here kicking off our 2024 Legislative Summit.

I’m here with our favorite podcasters, Claire Bartlett and Joel Kopperud, our government affairs team. Welcome, you guys. 

Blaire Bartlett
Thanks, Sandy. 

Sandy
We want to hear what’s going to be happening at the summit, the topics we’re going to be talking about, the potential speakers we’re going to hear from. So just give us sort of the lay of the land. 

Joel K
Yeah, perfect. Thanks. Thanks, everyone, for joining us this year. So we’re really excited. I mean, every time you guys come town, it’s an interesting time to be in town, and that’s not inconsistent with this year. We are now approaching the longest presidential general election in modern history. You’re welcome, everybody. It’s a rematch, the election nobody wants to have. But of course, that is obviously clouding everything that’s happening on Capitol Hill, to the surprise of nobody. And it is having a direct impact on our issues. That’s something that you will definitely feel throughout the program. But one thing that the first thing that you’re going to experience and hear from is going to be the most political presentation, and that is on Monday evening. 

Joel K
We really wanted to bring you behind the fold and behind the scenes in a way that nobody can do other than an organization of our caliber. So we are bringing to you at dinner the executive director of the national Republican Senate campaign, Jason Thielman, and the chairwoman of the DCCC, Susan del Bene. And they are both in charge of flipping the respective chamber for their party. So you will hear Jason talk about their strategy and messaging for flipping the Senate. And Susan, you will hear about the strategy and messaging for democrats to flip the House. By design. This is gonna be the most political speech that you hear all throughout the conference. And these are heavy hitters, and they both have a really good message to tell. And that’s also not by accident. 

Joel K
I think we all think if the election were held tomorrow, Republicans would take back the Senate and Democrats would take back the House, and you’re gonna hear from the leaders who are in charge of that campaign and that strategy. So it’s a really, should be a really good evening. 

Sandy
So for folks who are not in town for this, can you give us a little bit of the sort of strategies behind that? 

Blaire Bartlett
I would think, you know, for the Senate, you know, they’re looking at and they’ll explain, you know, what are they doing in media? What are they doing in digital media? How are they, you know, Republicans and how are they approaching and dealing with, you know, getting new voters, the Hispanic community, you know, how are they talking about the border? How are they talking about those issues that might be sensitive? You know, how are they addressing, you know, Senator Danes, who is chair of the national Republican Senatorial Committee, you know, he’s trying to stay away from polarizing candidates. And, you know, what does that recruitment look like? Good luck. Yeah, good luck. So, you know, he’s been successful in Montana, but it wasn’t without work. And so we’ll hear, you know, we’ll kind of hear about that. 

Blaire Bartlett
I think we’ll have about 20 minutes and then some questions after. And then, you know, we’ll have the same for Congresswoman Del Bene. 

Joel K
Yeah, but I think from Susan Del Bene, she’s a good friend. She’s a former Microsoft executive. She’s a powerful member of the ways and Means committee, but she’s tasked with winning back the House. So Democrats only need to flip four seats to take back the House of Representatives. And there are 18 or there are 17 republican members of Congress that represent districts that voted for Joe Biden. So it’s a real easy path to see. There’s a lot of hiccups happening along the way because several states are going through court mandated redistricting processes. But by and large, that should favor Democrats. North Carolina is going to, Democrats will lose seats in North Carolina. They will probably pick up a seat in Louisiana. They will pick up a seat in Alabama. 

Joel K
There’s some other seats that they are probably going to pick up, but as a whole, Democrats feel pretty optimistic that they’re going to pick up seats just by redistricting. But then they’re going to lean heavy into the Dobbs decision and reproductive rights messaging. They’re going to lean heavy on Bidenomics, which they now think is working in their favor. Which is, which is. 

Blaire
Nick, Joel, explain. 

Joel K
Bidenomics is government spending. Yeah. So they’re going to lean in. 

Blaire
Didn’t you know? 

Joel K
Oh, no, I didn’t know that $7 trillion of government spending will actually produce coastal consumer spending by electric charging stations. Exactly. They’re going to talk about all the things that the Biden administration has done, and they are going to lean into Trump and they’re going to talk about all the risks that another Trump presidency poses and probably, I would imagine, lean into the failures of House Republicans to govern and do anything. But we will see what the messaging is. But that’s going to give you a. 

Sandy
Flavor of what she’ll, that’s going to be really exciting. So let’s talk about our specific issues that will be maybe coming up in some of the program the next day, maybe not. But I know PBM transparency is top of the list for you guys. So let’s just get a little update on that one and then how that relates to some of our speakers. 

Blaire Bartlett
Sure. We are. 

Sandy
Yep. 

Blaire Bartlett
We’re so on Tuesday, we, in the afternoon we have CB, and then in the morning we have our congressional speaker program. And, you know, for the past probably year, we, you know, Joel Kopperud and I have been talking about, you know, if something is going to get done beyond the basic government funding and defense funding, we think it’s going to be PBM transparency. And it’s because it is, it’s becoming a bipartisan issue, bicameral issue. And so we think that it’s going to move forward. And, you know, you have to be optimistic in this city, otherwise it destroys you. So that’s where we are. You know, we’re cautiously optimistic. 

However you want to look at PBM transparency, whether or not you think that, you know, getting rid of rebating, getting rid of sped pricing, having brokers report their compensation, if you think that is the cure or if you think patent reform is the cure, I think the pieces are already in place of what is going to move. They’re just working out some really fine details on the Senate side and so that we’ll talk a little bit about that and then kind of some regulatory issues that have popped up in the healthcare benefits space with association health plans and dOL fiduciary rule and how our compliance folks are handling those. 

Sandy
All right. And then cannabis, I know it’s the other big topic. 

Joel K
Yeah. Cannabis is also in play. It’s been in play. You’ve all been hearing me say this for years. We’re cautiously optimistic. I’m getting less optimistic given that federal funding is questionable right now. They’ve kicked the can on federal funding to march. That seems to be the only legislative vehicle of the year to get anything accomplished. And so we are close with the negotiators who are trying to attach safe banking to that effort. We’ll see. You got to get the House and the Senate on the same page. You got to get leadership in both chambers on the same page. And they’re trying to do that. It seems like it’s getting a little bit increasingly out of risk. But I was just talking with some lead staffers this weekend, and they’re still optimistic that it can ride some federal funding bill in March. 

But one conversation that will be very interesting for everyone is one that we’re going to have with the chairman of the House ways and means committee Chairman Jason Smith. He’s in an interesting position right now because he’s just negotiated a significantly bipartisan tax bill that provides a lot of R and D credits, incentives for the business community that they’ve been advocating for a long time. And he coupled that with an extension of the child’s tax credits that Democrats have been pushing for a long time. It’s a big bipartisan solution. It’s going to be on the House floor this week, so it should be done by the time you all meet next week. We’ll see. But he’s getting a lot of political pushback for it because he negotiated with Democrats, and in this environment, bipartisanship is toxic. 

So he’s trying to be a bipartisan legislator, but he might pay the political price for it. So it’ll be interesting to hear him talk about that venture. But we’re also going to ask him directly about the fate of the Tax Cuts and Jobs act. That’s Washington speak for the Trump tax cuts that were passed in 2017. If those are nothing reauthorized in 2025, they are all going to go away. And basically every American and every company in the country is going to face a significant tax increase. That’s not completely true, a little bit of exaggeration, but by and large, there’s major tax increases on the table. So we’re going to ask him his vision for reauthorizing those, knowing that it’s probably going to cost the federal government $4 trillion to cleanly reauthorize them. 

Joel K
And it’s incredibly likely that Democrats will control one chamber, if not both in Congress, and we will probably be in a divided government scenario. So what is his vision for reauthorizing TCJA in a divided government? And does he have lessons learned from this latest bipartisan package? So it’s gonna be a really interesting conversation. And then following the speaker program, we’ve got a dinner that night with the most moderate members of Congress. And that is by design, we are starting with the most political, ending with the most moderate, Blair. Tell us about the dinner? 

Blaire Bartlett
Yeah, we’re having all of our attendees will be sitting at tables with members of the problem Solvers Caucus in the House. And so those are members, Republican and Democrat, that have kind of taken this pledge that, you know, they will work in a bipartisan manner. And, you know, it’s been around for a couple years, a couple congresses, and, yes, it can be effective, you know, but I think it just shows it’s effective in that it shows that there’s still bipartisanship. 

Joel K
This is a big deal. There’s, as Blair said, 20 members of Congress to be a member of the Problem Solvers Caucus. They all take significant political backlash from their party leaders and from their base for negotiating with the other side of the aisle. The political backlash is significant. By significant, I mean, it can accumulate to death threats. That shows how dedicated they are to bipartisanship, to reaching across the aisle. And they are in here. They’re here to legislate, not to play political games. These are the members of Congress that we stand strongly with. This caucus was actually at risk of dissolving earlier at the end of last year over the fight to take down Speaker McCarthy. Republicans were so angry with moderate Democrats for siding with Matt Gaetze and Marjorie Taylor Greene and the Freedom Caucus to take down their leader. 

It was a real splinter point in this caucus, and it really threatened its organization, but they held firm. They’re still on thin ice. But our message to them is clear. We stand with you. We need you guys to move forward. And if there’s anyone that’s gonna lead us back to a point of moderation, it is you guys. So we are here showing up to show our appreciation, to provide a space for them to sit down and dine with business leaders from across the country. And we are hopeful that other business organizations around Washington follow our lead and stand with these guys and strengthen the political center. So we’re really proud of this dinner, and we think it’s going to be a real success. 

Sandy
I didn’t realize they had gone through that. They were always the ones that sort of did bring kind of the hope for the room. So I’m a little nervous to hear that they almost fell apart. 

Blaire Bartlett
They might be, too. 

Sandy
All right, well, a lot’s riding on this, so I hope you’ve put together well, it’s going to be a great. A great few days. And for anyone who is not here with us, please check out the government affairs podcast, politics and risk from The Hill. 
They’re interviewing members of Congress all the time so you can get all this good stuff right from your own computer. So thanks, guys, and enjoy. 

Joel K
Thank you. 

Blaire Bartlett
Thanks, Sandy. 

That was Blaire Bartlett and Joel Kopperud, The Council’s Government Affairs team and hosts of the Politics and Risk podcast. For more from them, visit leadersedge.com or subscribe at Apple Podcast, Spotify or Soundcloud.