The Election Is Over. What Happens Next?

At 5:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 6, news organizations formally reported that Donald J. Trump had been elected the 47th president of the United States of America.

His election was even more definitive than in 2016, when he did not win the popular vote.

For those of us working on Capitol Hill our job now is to determine how the second Trump administration will approach the issues for which we advocate. The general belief is that he will focus on a full reauthorization of his signature Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), but we’ve been told by many members of Congress and their staffs that the tax reform package that passed in 2017 will not be cleanly reauthorized. However, those comments were given when Democrats held the majority in the Senate— which will not be the case when the 119th Congress convenes on Jan. 3.

Trump has also been vocal about imposing tariffs, large-scale deportations, and finishing a wall at the southern border.

It’s still unclear what health policies the Trump administration will pursue, but a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress would imperil the Affordable Care Act (ACA) insurance premium subsidies that were augmented by the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act. While some GOP leaders are already mentioning a full repeal of the ACA, it’s hard to see that moving forward. Republicans will also focus on expanding non-ACA plans, such as short-term health plans and association health plans.

Other potential priorities include codifying individual coverage health reimbursement arrangement (ICHRA) regulations into law. Trump used an executive order in 2017 to establish the program, the final rules for which became effective in 2019. ICHRAs enable employers to reimburse their workers for up to 100% of the premiums for their self-purchased health insurance. ICHRAs have been popular among both parties, but for Republicans in particular because they promote individual choice. However, until codified by law the program remains vulnerable to reversal by future presidential administrations.

All eyes are on Capitol Hill to figure out what’s palatable in a potentially divided Congress. It’s too early to say if there will be much air left in the room next year to work on issues beyond reauthorizing the TCJA.

Of course, the success of any presidential program depends on the makeup of the House and Senate.

With The Associated Press calling all races, Republicans will have 53 Senate seats beginning in January, leaving 47 to the Democrats and their caucasing Independents.

In the races for the 435 seats of the House of Representatives, it could be weeks from the time of this writing before the final outcome is known. Right now, Republicans have a slight edge, but the margin is so slim Democrats could retake the majority. Either way, if the Republicans maintain control of the House, it will be by a small enough number to make passing legislation difficult. The seats that Republicans have flipped so far are always going to be in play in the federal election cycle, so those new members of Congress won’t be able to line up 100% behind the next president if they want to keep their seats.

While much of what happens next year in Washington can’t be known, we can say it will be virtually impossible for President Joe Biden to pass any remaining legislative priorities during the lame-duck session to close out 2024. Those senators and representatives who have lost their seats will have little incentive to try to pass any legislation. The question is whether Congress can manage more than the bare minimum of funding the government.